Filing Flows › Allegiant Travel (ALGT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Allegiant Travel (ALGT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($92.74 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $28.61 a share (−60% against today's $71.34). Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $92.74 | today's $71.34 plus 30% |
| × shares | 27.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.9B | |
| − Cash | $854M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.6B | 10.2× EBITDA of $448M |
| Fees | $91.7M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.2B | 47% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.6B | $484M | $189M | −$172M | $2.6B |
| Year 2 | $3.8B | $517M | $202M | −$179M | $2.8B |
| Year 3 | $4.0B | $545M | $215M | −$187M | $3.0B |
| Year 4 | $4.2B | $568M | $230M | −$194M | $3.2B |
| Year 5 | $4.3B | $585M | $245M | −$203M | $3.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.2B | |
| − Debt left | $3.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.8B | |
| Money multiple | 0.83× | on $2.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $71.34; the IRR reaches 20% at $28.61 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $78.47 | 0.2% |
| 20% | $85.61 | −1.9% |
| 30% | $92.74 | −3.7% |
| 40% | $99.88 | −5.3% |
| 50% | $107.01 | −6.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $448M | 13.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $268M | |
| Capital spending | $406M | |
| Debt | $2.9B | |
| Cash | $854M | |
| Share price | $71.34 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Allegiant Travel would cost about $99.88 a share, $2.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $81.83 | $2.2B |
| Median | 40% | $99.88 | $2.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $114.29 | $3.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Allegiant Travel's latest quarter
Allegiant Travel, Q3 2026: revenue $962M (+71% year over year), operating margin 1.1%, net loss $15.2M, operating cash flow −$211M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Allegiant Travel being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Allegiant Travel?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($92.74 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $28.61 a share (−60% against today's $71.34).
What would a takeover of Allegiant Travel cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Allegiant Travel would cost about $99.88 a share, $2.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.