Filing Flows › Alaska Air Group (ALK) › Stock forecast & fair value
Alaska Air Group (ALK) stock forecast and fair value
Alaska Air Group (ALK) trades at $38.70. 16 analysts' median price target is $50.00 (+29%), from $33.00 to $78.00. Across 14 valuation methods the middle fair value is $51.69 (+34%).
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | −$2.20 | $6.59 | $12.57 | -83% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $3.31 | $6.81 | $11.30 | -82% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $57.70 | $77.36 | $99.95 | +100% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $36.67 | $74.84 | $97.77 | +93% |
| Residual income | $11.64 | $12.09 | $12.57 | -69% |
| Analysts' price targets | $33.00 | $51.69 | $78.00 | +34% |
| Owner earnings capitalized | $18.06 | $20.49 | $23.67 | -47% |
| Shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) | $62.02 | $70.36 | $81.28 | +82% |
| Tangible book (asset value) | $1.15 | $1.43 | $1.43 | -96% |
| Stage-weighted value (decline / turnaround) | $24.97 | $32.63 | $41.38 | -16% |
Alaska Air Group's latest quarter
Alaska Air Group, Q3 2026: revenue $4.3B (+14% year over year), operating margin 1.9%, net loss $147M, operating cash flow $149M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for ALK stock?
The median of 16 analysts' 12-month targets is $50.00, +29% from $38.70; the range is $33.00 to $78.00. The average rating is strong buy.
What is Alaska Air Group's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $1.43 and $193.46, with a middle value of $51.69 against a price of $38.70. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Alaska Air Group usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 40% of the quarters on record.
Is ALK stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.