Filing Flows › Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($203.24 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.37× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $203.24 | today's $156.34 plus 30% |
| × shares | 138.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $28.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $676M | |
| − Cash | $3.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $25.4B | 24.1× EBITDA of $1.1B |
| Fees | $508M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $20.1B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.9B | $1.1B | $444M | $463M | $5.3B |
| Year 2 | $5.1B | $1.1B | $408M | $520M | $4.8B |
| Year 3 | $5.2B | $1.2B | $369M | $581M | $4.2B |
| Year 4 | $5.4B | $1.2B | $324M | $647M | $3.6B |
| Year 5 | $5.6B | $1.2B | $275M | $719M | $2.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $22.0B | |
| − Debt left | $2.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $19.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.95× | on $20.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $156.34.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $171.97 | 4.0% |
| 20% | $187.61 | 1.3% |
| 30% | $203.24 | −1.0% |
| 40% | $218.88 | −3.1% |
| 50% | $234.51 | −4.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.1B | 22.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $54.8M | |
| Capital spending | $91.9M | |
| Debt | $676M | |
| Cash | $3.3B | |
| Share price | $156.34 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals would cost about $211.06 a share, $29.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $190.73 | $26.3B |
| Median | 35% | $211.06 | $29.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $226.69 | $31.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.37× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' latest quarter
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Q3 2026: revenue $1.5B (+17% year over year), operating margin 23.7%, net earnings $2.2B, operating cash flow $341M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Alnylam Pharmaceuticals?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($203.24 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals would cost about $211.06 a share, $29.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.