Filing Flows › Companies › Amcor › Analysis traps
Amcor (AMCR): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 5, 2026; rules v1.1
Amcor (AMCR): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 2 to review; 3 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $1.1B is at a high against a median of $805M over eight years; at 19.3× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (26.5×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 118.90 a share (price 45.84); 79% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 63.62 to 174.18; across every method the research ran the range is -96 to 1,092. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 9% against revenue 7% in Q3 2026; DSO 55 against a median of 51: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +6.7% |
| Receivables, year over year | +9.4% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +25.9% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +6.2% |
| Days sales outstanding | 55.5 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 50.9 |
| Receivables | $3.8B |
| Revenue | $6.1B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$253M comes due within a year, 3.3× covered by cash and investments of $832M.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $832M |
| Debt | $14.1B |
| Net debt | $13.2B |
| Due within a year | $253M |
| Read from | the current portion of debt on the balance sheet |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | — |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $832M |
| Coverage of what is due | 3.3 |
| Due in the second year | — |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: 2026-09-30 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 8% and net income fell 8% in Q3 2026; the share count rose 0.4%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.57 |
| EPS | $0.52 |
| Net income, year before | $262M |
| Net income | $242M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 462.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 464.6M shares |
| EPS growth | -8.0% |
| Net income growth | -7.6% |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.4% |
| eps from profit | -$0.04 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $1.1B is at a high against a median of $805M over eight years; at 19.3× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (26.5×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $21.3B |
| net income ttm | $1.1B |
| pe ttm | 19.30 |
| net income median fy | $805M |
| pe mid cycle | 26.50 |
| net income peak fy | $1.1B |
| years | FY2021 / 939.0; FY2022 / 805.0; FY2023 / 1048.0; FY2023 / 609.0; FY2024 / 730.0; FY2024 / 516.0; FY2025 / 511.0; FY2026 / 1106.0 |
| down years in window | 4 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 118.90 a share (price 45.84); 79% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 63.62 to 174.18; across every method the research ran the range is -96 to 1,092. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 118.90 |
| price | 45.84 |
| terminal value share | +78.8% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 63.62 / 174.18; WACC / ±1 pt / 92.83 / 159.4; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 94.56 / 147.29; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 110.33 / 127.46 |
| range all methods | -95.9; 1092.02 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Amcor: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.