Filing Flows › Amgen (AMGN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Amgen (AMGN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($598.36 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $338.11 a share (−27% against today's $460.28). At $367.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $598.36 | today's $460.28 plus 30% |
| × shares | 546.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $326.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $54.0B | |
| − Cash | $13.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $367.5B | 21.5× EBITDA of $17.1B |
| Fees | $7.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $94.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $280.9B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $42.0B | $18.5B | $7.2B | $7.3B | $86.7B |
| Year 2 | $44.9B | $19.7B | $6.6B | $8.8B | $77.9B |
| Year 3 | $47.3B | $20.8B | $6.0B | $10.2B | $67.7B |
| Year 4 | $49.3B | $21.7B | $5.2B | $11.6B | $56.1B |
| Year 5 | $50.8B | $22.3B | $4.3B | $12.8B | $43.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $381.5B | |
| − Debt left | $43.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $338.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.20× | on $280.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $460.28; the IRR reaches 20% at $338.11 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $506.31 | 8.1% |
| 20% | $552.34 | 5.8% |
| 30% | $598.36 | 3.8% |
| 40% | $644.39 | 2.0% |
| 50% | $690.42 | 0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $38.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $17.1B | 43.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $4.5B | |
| Capital spending | $2.5B | |
| Debt | $54.0B | |
| Cash | $13.2B | |
| Share price | $460.28 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 15% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amgen would cost about $621.38 a share, $339.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $561.54 | $306.6B |
| Median | 35% | $621.38 | $339.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $667.41 | $364.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Amgen's latest quarter
Amgen, Q3 2026: revenue $10.4B (+8% year over year), operating margin 35.8%, net earnings $3.9B, operating cash flow $4.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Amgen being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Amgen?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($598.36 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $338.11 a share (−27% against today's $460.28). At $367.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Amgen cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amgen would cost about $621.38 a share, $339.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.