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Ameresco (AMRC): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 4, 2026; rules v1.1
Ameresco (AMRC): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026: low net debt = no refinancing risk. 2 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low net debt = no refinancing risk Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
$149M of debt comes due within a year against $109M of cash and investments: $41M short, to be refinanced or raised. Net debt of $1.5B says nothing about when the debt falls due.
Innocent reading: A committed, undrawn credit facility covers the gap (not visible in the balance sheet).
Adjusted profit = economic profit To review · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 1 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 8.83 a share (price 21.61); 59% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -6.55 to 24.21; across every method the research ran the range is -59 to 486. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 3% against revenue 9% in Q2 2026; DSO 44 against a median of 44: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +9.1% |
| Receivables, year over year | +2.7% |
| Quarter before | Q1 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +13.8% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +10.0% |
| Days sales outstanding | 44.3 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 43.7 |
| Receivables | $253M |
| Revenue | $515M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q2 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit To review confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 1 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-09-30 / 0.3519 / 0.35 / 0.005; 2026-03-31 / -0.33 / -0.35 / 0.061; 2026-06-30 / 0.2 / 0.18 / 0.1 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 1 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +10.0% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-09-30 (adjusted 0.35 vs GAAP 0.35) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted -0.33 vs GAAP -0.35) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted 0.20 vs GAAP 0.18)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The reconciliation shows the excluded items ending (a restructuring with its final charge, a settlement paid) and the gap to GAAP closes in the next quarters
- The excluded items are only amortisation of acquired intangibles and the cash paid for the deals is in the investing cash flow
Look again: next filing.
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Triggered severity high · confidence medium
$149M of debt comes due within a year against $109M of cash and investments: $41M short, to be refinanced or raised. Net debt of $1.5B says nothing about when the debt falls due.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $109M |
| Debt | $1.6B |
| Net debt | $1.5B |
| Due within a year | $149M |
| Read from | the current portion of debt on the balance sheet |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | — |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $109M |
| Coverage of what is due | 0.7 |
| Due in the second year | — |
| Balance sheet date | 2024-12-31 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: 2024-12-31 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
What would explain it innocently
- A committed, undrawn credit facility covers the gap (not visible in the balance sheet)
- The notes are routinely rolled over in the commercial-paper or bond market at an investment-grade rating
- Cash held abroad or in subsidiaries can be moved to where the debt is
- A sale of a business or asset already agreed brings the cash
What to look for in the filing
- Undrawn committed facilities and their covenants
- The cost and rating of the refinancing
- Restricted cash and the operating minimum
What would show the trap does not apply
- The 10-K lists an undrawn credit facility that covers the debt due, or the maturity is refinanced before it falls due
- Cash plus FCF of the next quarter exceeds the debt due within a year
Look again: next filing.
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 26% and net income fell 24% in Q2 2026; the share count rose 1.9%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q2 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.24 |
| EPS | $0.18 |
| Net income, year before | $13M |
| Net income | $10M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 52.8M shares |
| Diluted shares | 53.8M shares |
| EPS growth | -25.8% |
| Net income growth | -24.5% |
| Diluted shares: change | +1.9% |
| eps from profit | -$0.06 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q2 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $54M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $57M, best $95M): the P/E of 21.3× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $1.2B |
| net income ttm | $54M |
| pe ttm | 21.30 |
| net income median fy | $57M |
| pe mid cycle | 20.30 |
| net income peak fy | $95M |
| years | FY2017 / 37.0; FY2018 / 38.0; FY2019 / 44.0; FY2020 / 54.0; FY2021 / 70.0; FY2022 / 95.0; FY2023 / 62.0; FY2024 / 57.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q2 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 8.83 a share (price 21.61); 59% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -6.55 to 24.21; across every method the research ran the range is -59 to 486. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 8.83 |
| price | 21.61 |
| terminal value share | +58.7% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / -6.55 / 24.21; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 2.51 / 16.34; WACC / ±1 pt / 4.25 / 15.26; Capex (share of revenue) / ±1 pt / 7.34 / 10.32 |
| range all methods | -58.83; 486.31 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Ameresco: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.