Filing Flows › Ameresco (AMRC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ameresco (AMRC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($26.40 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $11.71 a share (−42% against today's $20.31). It already carries 7.7× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $26.40 | today's $20.31 plus 30% |
| × shares | 53.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.6B | |
| − Cash | $109M | |
| + Other claims | $31.9M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.0B | 15.0× EBITDA of $198M |
| Fees | $59.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.9B | 64% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.9B | $208M | $83.3M | $108M | $981M |
| Year 2 | $1.9B | $217M | $75.1M | $124M | $858M |
| Year 3 | $2.0B | $226M | $65.6M | $141M | $717M |
| Year 4 | $2.1B | $234M | $54.9M | $158M | $559M |
| Year 5 | $2.2B | $241M | $42.8M | $176M | $383M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.2B | |
| − Debt left | $383M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.46× | on $1.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $20.31; the IRR reaches 20% at $11.71 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $22.34 | 10.5% |
| 20% | $24.37 | 9.2% |
| 30% | $26.40 | 7.9% |
| 40% | $28.43 | 6.7% |
| 50% | $30.46 | 5.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $198M | 11.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $89.2M | |
| Capital spending | $4.3M | |
| Debt | $1.6B | |
| Cash | $109M | |
| Share price | $20.31 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ameresco would cost about $28.43 a share, $1.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $23.30 | $1.2B |
| Median | 40% | $28.43 | $1.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $32.54 | $1.7B |
Ameresco's latest quarter
Ameresco, Q2 2026: revenue $515M (+9% year over year), operating margin 8.6%, net earnings $9.7M, operating cash flow −$107M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ameresco being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ameresco?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($26.40 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $11.71 a share (−42% against today's $20.31). It already carries 7.7× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Ameresco cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ameresco would cost about $28.43 a share, $1.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.