Filing Flows › Air Products & Chemicals (APD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Air Products & Chemicals (APD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($402.34 a share) would return a loss of about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $64.35 a share (−79% against today's $309.49). At $109.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. It already carries 17.7× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $402.34 | today's $309.49 plus 30% |
| × shares | 222.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $89.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $17.8B | |
| − Cash | $980M | |
| + Other claims | $2.7B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $109.2B | 114.8× EBITDA of $951M |
| Fees | $2.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $106.1B | 95% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $13.2B | $994M | $400M | −$4.6B | $9.8B |
| Year 2 | $13.7B | $1.0B | $749M | −$5.1B | $14.9B |
| Year 3 | $14.2B | $1.1B | $1.1B | −$5.6B | $20.5B |
| Year 4 | $14.7B | $1.1B | $1.6B | −$6.2B | $26.7B |
| Year 5 | $15.2B | $1.1B | $2.0B | −$6.8B | $33.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 93.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $106.4B | |
| − Debt left | $33.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $72.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.69× | on $106.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −7.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $309.49; the IRR reaches 20% at $64.35 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $340.44 | −4.6% |
| 20% | $371.39 | −5.9% |
| 30% | $402.34 | −7.2% |
| 40% | $433.29 | −8.4% |
| 50% | $464.24 | −9.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $12.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $951M | 7.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.5B | |
| Capital spending | $4.9B | |
| Debt | $17.8B | |
| Cash | $980M | |
| Share price | $309.49 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Air Products & Chemicals would cost about $410.07 a share, $91.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $371.39 | $82.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $410.07 | $91.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $469.81 | $104.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Air Products & Chemicals' latest quarter
Air Products & Chemicals, Q4 FY26: revenue $3.6B (+12% year over year), operating margin 17.8%, net earnings $584M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Air Products & Chemicals being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Air Products & Chemicals?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($402.34 a share) would return a loss of about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $64.35 a share (−79% against today's $309.49). At $109.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. It already carries 17.7× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Air Products & Chemicals cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Air Products & Chemicals would cost about $410.07 a share, $91.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.