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AppLovin (APP): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1
AppLovin (APP): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 2 to review; 3 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $5.0B is at a high against a median of $119M over eight years; at 26.5× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (1117.0×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 292.43 a share (price 397.18); 63% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 246.18 to 346.00; across every method the research ran the range is 32 to 873. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 3.8% of revenue, but buybacks of $2.2B covered it (10.4×) and the diluted share count fell 1.7%: the dilution has been paid for in cash.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $210M |
| Revenue | $5.5B |
| SBC / revenue | +3.8% |
| Buybacks | $2.2B |
| Buybacks / SBC | 10.4 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 347.8M shares |
| Diluted shares | 342.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.7% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 49% against revenue 55% in Q3 2026; DSO 96 against a median of 104: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +55.5% |
| Receivables, year over year | +48.9% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +52.8% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +37.3% |
| Days sales outstanding | 96.0 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 104.3 |
| Receivables | $2.4B |
| Revenue | $2.2B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 75% and net income rose 72% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 1.8%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $2.45 |
| EPS | $4.30 |
| Net income, year before | $836M |
| Net income | $1.4B |
| Diluted shares, year before | 341.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 334.8M shares |
| EPS growth | +75.4% |
| Net income growth | +72.2% |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.8% |
| eps from profit | $1.77 |
| eps from share count | $0.08 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $5.0B is at a high against a median of $119M over eight years; at 26.5× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (1117.0×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $133.0B |
| net income ttm | $5.0B |
| pe ttm | 26.50 |
| net income median fy | $119M |
| pe mid cycle | 1,117.00 |
| net income peak fy | $3.3B |
| years | FY2019 / 119.0; FY2020 / -125.0; FY2021 / 35.0; FY2022 / -193.0; FY2023 / 357.0; FY2024 / 1580.0; FY2025 / 3334.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 292.43 a share (price 397.18); 63% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 246.18 to 346.00; across every method the research ran the range is 32 to 873. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 292.43 |
| price | 397.18 |
| terminal value share | +62.7% |
| swing by input | Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 246.18 / 346.0; WACC / ±1 pt / 267.81 / 321.67; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 275.04 / 309.82; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 281.1 / 303.76 |
| range all methods | 31.75; 872.95 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → AppLovin: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.