Filing Flows › Appfolio (APPF) › Takeover & LBO
Is Appfolio (APPF) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($284.19 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.8× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $284.19 | today's $218.61 plus 30% |
| × shares | 35.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $259M | |
| = Enterprise value | $9.9B | 43.8× EBITDA of $225M |
| Fees | $197M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.8B | 88% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $243M | $94.6M | $123M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $259M | $85.2M | $146M | $968M |
| Year 3 | $1.3B | $273M | $74.0M | $170M | $798M |
| Year 4 | $1.4B | $285M | $61.1M | $193M | $605M |
| Year 5 | $1.4B | $294M | $46.3M | $215M | $391M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 33.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $9.8B | |
| − Debt left | $391M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $9.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.07× | on $8.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $218.61.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $240.47 | 5.5% |
| 20% | $262.33 | 3.3% |
| 30% | $284.19 | 1.4% |
| 40% | $306.05 | −0.4% |
| 50% | $327.92 | −1.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $225M | 20.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $20.1M | |
| Capital spending | $1.6M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $259M | |
| Share price | $218.61 | on Oct 15, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Appfolio would cost about $284.19 a share, $10.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $244.84 | $8.7B |
| Median | 30% | $284.19 | $10.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $286.38 | $10.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.8× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Appfolio's latest quarter
Appfolio, Q3 2026: revenue $296M (+19% year over year), operating margin 19.4%, net earnings $46.0M, operating cash flow $96.8M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Appfolio being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Appfolio?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($284.19 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Appfolio cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Appfolio would cost about $284.19 a share, $10.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.