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ASML Holding NV (ASML): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: FY2025, to Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 25, 2026; rules v1.1
ASML Holding NV (ASML): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Dec 31, 2025: FCF growth = the business improved; 5 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity medium · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $2.0B (+22%), from $9.1B to $11.1B, but working capital released $988M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $494M: 75% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital rose by $504M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity medium · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $2.0B (+22%), from $9.1B to $11.1B, but working capital released $988M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $494M: 75% of the increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital rose by $504M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $11.2B |
| Operating cash flow | $12.7B |
| Capex, year before | $2.1B |
| Capex | $1.6B |
| Free cash flow, year before | $9.1B |
| Free cash flow | $11.1B |
| Change in FCF | $2.0B |
| Change in capex | −$494M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $988M |
| Of which: capex cut | $494M |
| Of which: working capital released | $988M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +74.6% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 503800000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.6% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $202M |
| Revenue | $32.7B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.6% |
| Buybacks | $6.0B |
| Buybacks / SBC | 29.4 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 393.6M shares |
| Diluted shares | 388.9M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.2% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$1.7B comes due within a year, 7.9× covered by cash and investments of $13.3B.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $13.3B |
| Debt | $4.4B |
| Net debt | −$8.9B |
| Due within a year | $1.7B |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | — |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $13.3B |
| Coverage of what is due | 7.9 |
| Due in the second year | $752M |
| Balance sheet date | 2025-12-31 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
no market value or trailing net income in the valuation research
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.