Filing Flows › Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($88.04 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $62.67 a share (−7% against today's $67.72). Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $88.04 | today's $67.72 plus 30% |
| × shares | 63.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $494M | |
| − Cash | $298M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.8B | 8.1× EBITDA of $714M |
| Fees | $116M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.8B | 5.3× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $2.1B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.4B | $741M | $288M | $135M | $3.6B |
| Year 2 | $6.6B | $767M | $278M | $157M | $3.5B |
| Year 3 | $6.9B | $792M | $266M | $180M | $3.3B |
| Year 4 | $7.1B | $818M | $252M | $204M | $3.1B |
| Year 5 | $7.3B | $842M | $236M | $230M | $2.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.3B | |
| − Debt left | $2.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $2.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $67.72; the IRR reaches 20% at $62.67 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $74.49 | 11.9% |
| 20% | $81.26 | 7.3% |
| 30% | $88.04 | 2.7% |
| 40% | $94.81 | −1.6% |
| 50% | $101.58 | −4.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $714M | 11.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $123M | |
| Capital spending | $216M | |
| Debt | $494M | |
| Cash | $298M | |
| Share price | $67.72 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Academy Sports & Outdoors would cost about $89.73 a share, $5.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $81.26 | $5.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $89.73 | $5.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $102.80 | $6.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Academy Sports & Outdoors' latest quarter
Academy Sports & Outdoors, Q2 FY27: revenue $1.6B (+3% year over year), operating margin 15.0%, net earnings $138M, operating cash flow $188M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Academy Sports & Outdoors being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Academy Sports & Outdoors?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($88.04 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $62.67 a share (−7% against today's $67.72).
What would a takeover of Academy Sports & Outdoors cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Academy Sports & Outdoors would cost about $89.73 a share, $5.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.