Filing Flows › Companies › Aveanna Healthcare Holdings › Analysis traps
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jul 4, 2026, filed Aug 13, 2026; rules v1.1
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jul 4, 2026. 2 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Adjusted profit = economic profit To review · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 2 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 22.05 a share (price 13.25); 75% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 14.11 to 29.98; across every method the research ran the range is -8 to 68. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.0% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $25M |
| Revenue | $2.4B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.0% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 192.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 215.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +11.5% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 7% against revenue 14% in Q2 2026; DSO 45 against a median of 46: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +13.7% |
| Receivables, year over year | +6.6% |
| Quarter before | Q1 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +15.9% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +12.8% |
| Days sales outstanding | 45.5 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 46.3 |
| Receivables | $337M |
| Revenue | $670M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q2 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit To review confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 2 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-09-30 / 0.15 / 0.06 / 0.6; 2026-03-31 / 0.18 / 0.19 / -0.056; 2026-06-30 / 0.22 / 0.18 / 0.182 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 2 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +18.2% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-09-30 (adjusted 0.15 vs GAAP 0.06) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted 0.18 vs GAAP 0.19) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted 0.22 vs GAAP 0.18)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The reconciliation shows the excluded items ending (a restructuring with its final charge, a settlement paid) and the gap to GAAP closes in the next quarters
- The excluded items are only amortisation of acquired intangibles and the cash paid for the deals is in the investing cash flow
Look again: next filing.
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$13M comes due within a year, 20.0× covered by cash and investments of $97M plus $168M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $97M |
| Debt | $1.3B |
| Net debt | $1.2B |
| Due within a year | $13M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $168M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $265M |
| Coverage of what is due | 20.0 |
| Due in the second year | $13M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-07-04 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 40% and net income rose 49% in Q2 2026; the share count rose 6.9%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q2 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.13 |
| EPS | $0.18 |
| Net income, year before | $27M |
| Net income | $40M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 210.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 224.9M shares |
| EPS growth | +39.8% |
| Net income growth | +49.1% |
| Diluted shares: change | +6.9% |
| eps from profit | $0.06 |
| eps from share count | -$0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q2 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a loss on a trailing or mid-cycle basis: the P/E has no meaning
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 22.05 a share (price 13.25); 75% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 14.11 to 29.98; across every method the research ran the range is -8 to 68. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 22.05 |
| price | 13.25 |
| terminal value share | +75.4% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 14.11 / 29.98; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 17.24 / 27.73; WACC / ±1 pt / 18.21 / 27.35; Terminal growth / ±0.5 pt / 21.02 / 23.25 |
| range all methods | -7.83; 68.45 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Aveanna Healthcare Holdings: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.