Filing Flows › AvePoint (AVPT) › Takeover & LBO
Is AvePoint (AVPT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($19.02 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $19.02 | today's $14.63 plus 30% |
| × shares | 220.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $417M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.8B | 77.8× EBITDA of $48.6M |
| Fees | $75.7M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $267M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.6B | 93% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $503M | $52.5M | $20.5M | $20.9M | $246M |
| Year 2 | $537M | $56.0M | $18.9M | $25.5M | $221M |
| Year 3 | $567M | $59.1M | $16.9M | $30.1M | $191M |
| Year 4 | $591M | $61.6M | $14.6M | $34.8M | $156M |
| Year 5 | $609M | $63.5M | $11.9M | $39.2M | $117M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 57.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.7B | |
| − Debt left | $117M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.6B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $3.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $14.63.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $16.09 | 3.9% |
| 20% | $17.56 | 1.8% |
| 30% | $19.02 | −0.2% |
| 40% | $20.48 | −1.9% |
| 50% | $21.95 | −3.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $466M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $48.6M | 10.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $3.0M | |
| Capital spending | $3.7M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $417M | |
| Share price | $14.63 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AvePoint would cost about $19.02 a share, $4.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $16.39 | $3.6B |
| Median | 30% | $19.02 | $4.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $19.17 | $4.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
AvePoint's latest quarter
AvePoint, Q3 2026: revenue $131M (+20% year over year), operating margin 8.7%, net earnings $17.9M, operating cash flow $31.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is AvePoint being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy AvePoint?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($19.02 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of AvePoint cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AvePoint would cost about $19.02 a share, $4.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.