Filing Flows › Avantor (AVTR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Avantor (AVTR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($20.07 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $9.60 a share (−38% against today's $15.44). Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $20.07 | today's $15.44 plus 30% |
| × shares | 680.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $13.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.7B | |
| − Cash | $464M | |
| = Enterprise value | $16.9B | 18.6× EBITDA of $906M |
| Fees | $338M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $12.2B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.7B | $915M | $381M | $367M | $4.6B |
| Year 2 | $6.8B | $928M | $353M | $399M | $4.2B |
| Year 3 | $6.9B | $946M | $323M | $436M | $3.8B |
| Year 4 | $7.1B | $970M | $289M | $479M | $3.3B |
| Year 5 | $7.3B | $999M | $253M | $530M | $2.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $15.1B | |
| − Debt left | $2.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $12.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.01× | on $12.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $15.44; the IRR reaches 20% at $9.60 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $16.98 | 4.1% |
| 20% | $18.52 | 2.0% |
| 30% | $20.07 | 0.2% |
| 40% | $21.61 | −1.5% |
| 50% | $23.15 | −3.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $906M | 13.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $419M | |
| Capital spending | $146M | |
| Debt | $3.7B | |
| Cash | $464M | |
| Share price | $15.44 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Avantor would cost about $21.61 a share, $14.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $17.70 | $12.1B |
| Median | 40% | $21.61 | $14.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $24.73 | $16.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Avantor's latest quarter
Avantor, Q3 2026: revenue $1.7B (+5% year over year), operating margin 8.2%, net earnings $203M, operating cash flow $195M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Avantor being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Avantor?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($20.07 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $9.60 a share (−38% against today's $15.44).
What would a takeover of Avantor cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Avantor would cost about $21.61 a share, $14.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.