Filing Flows › Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Axsome Therapeutics on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$151M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $865M). Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average).
Why a leveraged buyout does not fit
A leveraged buyout is paid for mostly with debt that the company's own cash flow repays. Axsome Therapeutics' EBITDA over the last 12 months was −$151M on revenue of $865M, so there is nothing to lend against and nothing to repay a loan with: a buyer would have to pay almost entirely with its own money. That is the kind of deal another company — a strategic buyer that wants the products, the pipeline or the technology — makes, not a private-equity fund. The model therefore gives no buyout price.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Axsome Therapeutics would cost about $227.27 a share, $11.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $205.39 | $10.8B |
| Median | 35% | $227.27 | $11.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $244.11 | $12.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Axsome Therapeutics' latest quarter
Axsome Therapeutics, Q3 2026: revenue $260M (+52% year over year), operating margin -4.3%, net loss $12.9M, operating cash flow −$9.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Axsome Therapeutics being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Axsome Therapeutics?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Axsome Therapeutics on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$151M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $865M). With no cash flow to repay a loan, a buyer would pay almost entirely with its own money: a deal for another company (a strategic buyer), not for a private-equity fund.
What would a takeover of Axsome Therapeutics cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Axsome Therapeutics would cost about $227.27 a share, $11.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.