Filing Flows › Boeing (BA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Boeing (BA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($224.25 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $131.44 a share (−24% against today's $172.50). At $202.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $224.25 | today's $172.50 plus 30% |
| × shares | 792.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $177.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $45.6B | |
| − Cash | $20.7B | |
| + Other claims | $15.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $202.7B | 16.9× EBITDA of $12.0B |
| Fees | $4.1B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $66.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $140.6B | 68% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $102.5B | $13.0B | $5.1B | $2.2B | $63.9B |
| Year 2 | $109.4B | $13.9B | $4.9B | $2.9B | $61.0B |
| Year 3 | $115.4B | $14.6B | $4.7B | $3.6B | $57.4B |
| Year 4 | $120.3B | $15.2B | $4.4B | $4.3B | $53.0B |
| Year 5 | $124.0B | $15.7B | $4.1B | $5.0B | $48.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $211.1B | |
| − Debt left | $48.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $163.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.16× | on $140.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $172.50; the IRR reaches 20% at $131.44 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $189.75 | 7.7% |
| 20% | $207.00 | 5.2% |
| 30% | $224.25 | 3.0% |
| 40% | $241.50 | 1.1% |
| 50% | $258.75 | −0.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $94.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $12.0B | 12.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.3B | |
| Capital spending | $4.0B | |
| Debt | $45.6B | |
| Cash | $20.7B | |
| Share price | $172.50 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Boeing would cost about $241.50 a share, $191.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $197.86 | $156.8B |
| Median | 40% | $241.50 | $191.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $276.34 | $219.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Boeing's latest quarter
Boeing, Q3 2026: revenue $24.2B (+4% year over year), operating margin 1.5%, net loss $116M, operating cash flow $1.5B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Boeing being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Boeing?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($224.25 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $131.44 a share (−24% against today's $172.50). At $202.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Boeing cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Boeing would cost about $241.50 a share, $191.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.