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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 6, 2026; rules v1.1
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026: stock compensation added back = no economic cost; 3 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered · severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $7M, 5.8% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 7.4%. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
Innocent reading: A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($5M → −$64M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $9M |
| Operating cash flow | $17M |
| Capex, year before | $4M |
| Capex | $81M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $5M |
| Free cash flow | −$64M |
| Change in FCF | −$69M |
| Change in capex | $77M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $3M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $7M, 5.8% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 7.4%. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $7M |
| Revenue | $123M |
| SBC / revenue | +5.8% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 50.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 54.3M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +7.4% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
What would explain it innocently
- A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows
- Buybacks at prices below intrinsic value make up for the dilution over time
- A one-off grant (an acquisition, a founder award) rather than a steady level
What to look for in the filing
- The share count after the latest buybacks (the next 10-Q's cover)
- The price paid for the buybacks against the shares' value
- Unvested awards outstanding
What would show the trap does not apply
- The diluted share count falls over two years with buybacks at least equal to the stock compensation
- Stock compensation falls as a share of revenue in each of the next two years
Look again: next filing.
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Not triggered confidence low
Adjusted and GAAP EPS were within 10% of each other in the last 3 quarters.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-09-30 / 0.37 / 0.37 / 0.0; 2026-03-31 / -0.69 / -0.69 / 0.0; 2026-06-30 / -0.13 / -0.13 / 0.0 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 0 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +0.0% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-09-30 (adjusted 0.37 vs GAAP 0.37) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted -0.69 vs GAAP -0.69) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted -0.13 vs GAAP -0.13)
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$3M comes due within a year, 2.5× covered by cash and investments of $7M.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $7M |
| Debt | $222M |
| Net debt | $215M |
| Due within a year | $3M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$89M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $7M |
| Coverage of what is due | 2.5 |
| Due in the second year | $4M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 21% and net income rose 26% in Q3 2025; the share count rose 4.7%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2025 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2024 |
| EPS, year before | $0.31 |
| EPS | $0.38 |
| Net income, year before | $27M |
| Net income | $35M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 88.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 92.1M shares |
| EPS growth | +20.6% |
| Net income growth | +26.2% |
| Diluted shares: change | +4.7% |
| eps from profit | $0.08 |
| eps from share count | -$0.02 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2025 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2024 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
no market value or trailing net income in the valuation research
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.