Filing Flows › Bally's (BALY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Bally's (BALY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($17.58 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 28.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 7.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.56× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $17.58 | today's $13.52 plus 30% |
| × shares | 60.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.5B | |
| − Cash | $390M | |
| + Other claims | $1.5B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $6.7B | 45.6× EBITDA of $147M |
| Fees | $134M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $809M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.0B | 88% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.2B | $159M | $61.9M | −$102M | $911M |
| Year 2 | $3.4B | $170M | $69.7M | −$109M | $1.0B |
| Year 3 | $3.6B | $179M | $78.1M | −$115M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $3.8B | $187M | $86.9M | −$121M | $1.3B |
| Year 5 | $3.9B | $192M | $96.2M | −$127M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 43.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.4B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $6.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $13.52.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $14.87 | 3.8% |
| 20% | $16.22 | 3.5% |
| 30% | $17.58 | 3.2% |
| 40% | $18.93 | 2.9% |
| 50% | $20.28 | 2.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $147M | 5.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $363M | |
| Capital spending | $162M | |
| Debt | $4.5B | |
| Cash | $390M | |
| Share price | $13.52 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Bally's would cost about $17.91 a share, $1.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $16.22 | $983M |
| Median | 32.5% | $17.91 | $1.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $20.52 | $1.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 7.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.56× the average). Its figures put it in decile 10 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Bally's latest quarter
Bally's, Q2 2026: revenue $792M (+20% year over year), operating margin -4.3%, net loss $164M, operating cash flow −$121M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Bally's being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Bally's?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($17.58 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 28.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Bally's cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Bally's would cost about $17.91 a share, $1.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.