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California BanCorp (BCAL) guidance and outlook

California BanCorp's 10-Q filed Nov 6, 2026 makes 14 forward-looking statements.

Guidance and outlook

Forward-looking statements, 10-Q filed Nov 6, 2026

• We consider tangible book value per share a meaningful measure because it suggests what our common shareholders can expect to receive if we are in financial distress and are forced to liquidate our assets at the book value price.
• The reversal of provision for credit losses on loans held for investment for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was primarily due a decrease in the balance of loans held for investment, changes in the composition of the loans held for investment portfolio, and changes in qualitative factors, partially offset by $5.6 million in net charge-offs, resulting from our continuing strategy to derisk the…
• We have the intent and ability to hold the securities classified as held to maturity until they mature, at which time we will receive full value for the securities.
• We do not have the current intent to sell these available-for-sale debt securities with a fair value below amortized cost, and it is more likely than not that we will not be required to sell such securities prior to the recovery of their amortized cost basis.
• As a result, we expect to recover the entire amortized cost basis of these securities.
• Our ACL model incorporates assumptions for our own historical quarterly prepayment and curtailment experience covering the period starting from February 2021 to estimate the ACL, probability of default (“PD”), and loss given default (“LGD”) to project each loan’s cash flow throughout its entire life cycle.
• We also reviewed the underlying assumptions supporting each scenario along with other sources of economic forecasts and meeting minutes of the FOMC when determining the scenario weighting.
• At September 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, we used a probability-weighted two-scenario forecast, representing a baseline scenario and one downside scenario, to estimate the ACL.
• At September 30, 2026, we updated the scenario weightings and assigned 70% to the baseline scenario and 30% to the downside scenario, compared to 80% to the baseline scenario and 20% to the downside scenario at December 31, 2025, based primarily on Moody’s September 2026 forecasts, supplemented by other economic outlooks and FOMC guidance.
• Following the FOMC’s September 2026 decision to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, we concluded that Moody’s baseline remained a reasonable central forecast for economic growth and employment, but that its reliability had diminished given its limited incorporation of the September 2026 rate increase and relatively optimistic assumptions regarding inflation and the longer-term interest rate path.
• We used economic forecasts released by Moody’s Analytics in the third week of September 2026 to update our ACL calculations for September 30, 2026.
• This sensitivity analysis and related impact on the ACL is a hypothetical analysis and is not intended to represent management’s judgments or assumptions of qualitative loss factors that were utilized at September 30, 2026.

California BanCorp's latest quarter

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What does California BanCorp expect?

We consider tangible book value per share a meaningful measure because it suggests what our common shareholders can expect to receive if we are in financial distress and are forced to liquidate our assets at the book value price. The reversal of provision for credit losses on loans held for investment for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was primarily due a decrease in the balance of loans held for investment, changes in the composition of the loans held for investment portfolio, and changes in qualitative factors, partially offset by $5.6 million in net charge-offs, resulting from our

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Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.