Filing Flows › Becton Dickinson (BDX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Becton Dickinson (BDX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($277.62 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $162.04 a share (−24% against today's $213.55). At $92.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $277.62 | today's $213.55 plus 30% |
| × shares | 275.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $76.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $16.8B | |
| − Cash | $708M | |
| = Enterprise value | $92.5B | 18.6× EBITDA of $5.0B |
| Fees | $1.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $27.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $67.0B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $25.1B | $5.4B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $25.2B |
| Year 2 | $26.8B | $5.7B | $1.9B | $2.7B | $22.5B |
| Year 3 | $28.3B | $6.1B | $1.7B | $3.1B | $19.4B |
| Year 4 | $29.5B | $6.3B | $1.5B | $3.5B | $15.9B |
| Year 5 | $30.4B | $6.5B | $1.2B | $4.0B | $11.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $97.8B | |
| − Debt left | $11.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $85.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.28× | on $67.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $213.55; the IRR reaches 20% at $162.04 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $234.91 | 9.3% |
| 20% | $256.26 | 7.1% |
| 30% | $277.62 | 5.1% |
| 40% | $298.97 | 3.3% |
| 50% | $320.33 | 1.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $23.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $5.0B | 21.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.5B | |
| Capital spending | $753M | |
| Debt | $16.8B | |
| Cash | $708M | |
| Share price | $213.55 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Becton Dickinson would cost about $288.29 a share, $79.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $260.53 | $71.7B |
| Median | 35% | $288.29 | $79.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $309.65 | $85.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Becton Dickinson's latest quarter
Becton Dickinson, Q3 FY26: revenue $5.0B (+5% year over year), operating margin 13.3%, net earnings $377M, operating cash flow $776M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Becton Dickinson being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Becton Dickinson?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($277.62 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $162.04 a share (−24% against today's $213.55). At $92.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Becton Dickinson cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Becton Dickinson would cost about $288.29 a share, $79.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.