Filing Flows › Brown Forman (BF-B) › Takeover & LBO
Is Brown Forman (BF-B) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($37.32 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $19.62 a share (−32% against today's $28.71). Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $37.32 | today's $28.71 plus 30% |
| × shares | 459.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $17.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.4B | |
| − Cash | $301M | |
| = Enterprise value | $19.3B | 17.8× EBITDA of $1.1B |
| Fees | $386M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $13.7B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.1B | $1.1B | $457M | $439M | $5.5B |
| Year 2 | $5.2B | $1.1B | $423M | $474M | $5.1B |
| Year 3 | $5.3B | $1.1B | $387M | $516M | $4.5B |
| Year 4 | $5.4B | $1.2B | $348M | $565M | $4.0B |
| Year 5 | $5.6B | $1.2B | $304M | $622M | $3.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $16.8B | |
| − Debt left | $3.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $13.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.98× | on $13.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $28.71; the IRR reaches 20% at $19.62 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $31.58 | 4.1% |
| 20% | $34.45 | 1.7% |
| 30% | $37.32 | −0.4% |
| 40% | $40.19 | −2.2% |
| 50% | $43.06 | −3.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.1B | 21.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $93.0M | |
| Capital spending | $88.0M | |
| Debt | $2.4B | |
| Cash | $301M | |
| Share price | $28.71 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Brown Forman would cost about $38.04 a share, $17.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $34.45 | $15.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $38.04 | $17.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $43.58 | $20.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Brown Forman's latest quarter
Brown Forman, Q1 FY27: revenue $1.2B (-0.8% year over year), operating margin 21.3%, net earnings $176M, operating cash flow $173M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Brown Forman being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Brown Forman?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($37.32 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $19.62 a share (−32% against today's $28.71).
What would a takeover of Brown Forman cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Brown Forman would cost about $38.04 a share, $17.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.