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Bakkt (BKKT): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2025, to Jun 30, 2025, filed Aug 11, 2025; rules v1.1
Bakkt (BKKT): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2025: stock compensation added back = no economic cost. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 6 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered · severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $72M, 3.1% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 106.5%. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
Innocent reading: A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows.
Adjusted profit = economic profit To review · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 1 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not applicable
a financial company: free cash flow after capex is not the measure of its business
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $72M, 3.1% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 106.5%. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $72M |
| Revenue | $2.3B |
| SBC / revenue | +3.1% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 5.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 12.1M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +106.5% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
What would explain it innocently
- A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows
- Buybacks at prices below intrinsic value make up for the dilution over time
- A one-off grant (an acquisition, a founder award) rather than a steady level
What to look for in the filing
- The share count after the latest buybacks (the next 10-Q's cover)
- The price paid for the buybacks against the shares' value
- Unvested awards outstanding
What would show the trap does not apply
- The diluted share count falls over two years with buybacks at least equal to the stock compensation
- Stock compensation falls as a share of revenue in each of the next two years
Look again: next filing.
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not applicable
a financial company: receivables and DSO are not its working capital
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit To review confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 1 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-09-30 / 2.4685 / -1.15 / 1.466; 2026-03-31 / -0.5754 / -0.41 / -0.287; 2026-06-30 / -0.3406 / 1.94 / -6.696 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 1 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | -669.6% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-09-30 (adjusted 2.47 vs GAAP -1.15) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted -0.58 vs GAAP -0.41) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted -0.34 vs GAAP 1.94)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The reconciliation shows the excluded items ending (a restructuring with its final charge, a settlement paid) and the gap to GAAP closes in the next quarters
- The excluded items are only amortisation of acquired intangibles and the cash paid for the deals is in the investing cash flow
Look again: next filing.
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no balance-sheet cash or debt on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a financial company: J06 reads its cycle instead
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
a loss: the P/E has no meaning
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Bakkt: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.