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Bloomin' Brands (BLMN): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 27, 2026, filed Nov 6, 2026; rules v1.1
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 27, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $89M (+1209%), from $7M to $97M, but working capital released $55M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $41M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $6M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 7.12 a share (price 9.75); 67% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -10.28 to 24.52; across every method the research ran the range is -44 to 169. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $89M (+1209%), from $7M to $97M, but working capital released $55M more cash than the year before and capital expenditure fell by $41M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $6M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $228M |
| Operating cash flow | $277M |
| Capex, year before | $221M |
| Capex | $180M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $7M |
| Free cash flow | $97M |
| Change in FCF | $89M |
| Change in capex | −$41M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $55M |
| Of which: capex cut | $41M |
| Of which: working capital released | $55M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +107.1% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | -6363000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.2% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $8M |
| Revenue | $4.0B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.2% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 85.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 85.3M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.7% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
Nothing comes due within a year; net debt is $677M.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $91M |
| Debt | $768M |
| Net debt | $677M |
| Due within a year | 0 |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $121M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $212M |
| Coverage of what is due | — |
| Due in the second year | 0 |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-27 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $82M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $107M, best $247M): the P/E of 10.2× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $835M |
| net income ttm | $82M |
| pe ttm | 10.20 |
| net income median fy | $107M |
| pe mid cycle | 7.80 |
| net income peak fy | $247M |
| years | FY2018 / 107.0; FY2019 / 131.0; FY2020 / -159.0; FY2021 / 216.0; FY2022 / 102.0; FY2023 / 247.0; FY2024 / -128.0; FY2025 / 8.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 7.12 a share (price 9.75); 67% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -10.28 to 24.52; across every method the research ran the range is -44 to 169. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 7.12 |
| price | 9.75 |
| terminal value share | +66.7% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / -10.28 / 24.52; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 5.06 / 9.59; WACC / ±1 pt / 5.26 / 9.65; Capex (share of revenue) / ±1 pt / 5.23 / 9.01 |
| range all methods | -43.53; 168.58 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Bloomin' Brands: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.