Filing Flows › Companies › Black Stone Minerals, L.P. › Analysis traps
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 3, 2026; rules v1.1
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: receivables growing = future cash is certain. 1 to review; 4 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered · severity medium · confidence medium
Receivables grew -13% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -25%, and the quarter before 21% against -7%; days sales outstanding is 5 against a median of 4 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
Innocent reading: Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 18.80 a share (price 14.81); 76% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 15.40 to 24.35; across every method the research ran the range is -1 to 113. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($280M → $203M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $389M |
| Operating cash flow | $310M |
| Capex, year before | $109M |
| Capex | $107M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $280M |
| Free cash flow | $203M |
| Change in FCF | −$77M |
| Change in capex | −$2M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$18M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity medium · confidence medium
Receivables grew -13% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -25%, and the quarter before 21% against -7%; days sales outstanding is 5 against a median of 4 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | -24.7% |
| Receivables, year over year | -12.7% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | -6.6% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +21.5% |
| Days sales outstanding | 5.1 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 3.7 |
| Receivables | $4M |
| Revenue | $100M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $284M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $271M, best $476M): the P/E of 11.1× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $3.2B |
| net income ttm | $284M |
| pe ttm | 11.10 |
| net income median fy | $271M |
| pe mid cycle | 11.60 |
| net income peak fy | $476M |
| years | FY2018 / 296.0; FY2019 / 214.0; FY2020 / 122.0; FY2021 / 182.0; FY2022 / 476.0; FY2023 / 423.0; FY2024 / 271.0; FY2025 / 270.0 |
| down years in window | 5 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 18.80 a share (price 14.81); 76% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 15.40 to 24.35; across every method the research ran the range is -1 to 113. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 18.80 |
| price | 14.81 |
| terminal value share | +75.6% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 15.4 / 24.35; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 15.0 / 23.4; Terminal growth / ±0.5 pt / 17.72 / 20.18; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 17.66 / 19.95 |
| range all methods | -0.84; 112.57 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Black Stone Minerals, L.P.: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.