Filing Flows › Maplebear (CART) › Takeover & LBO
Is Maplebear (CART) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($73.39 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-30): SC US (TTGP), LTD. (7.9%): On October 28, 2026, the Company entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with DoorDash, Inc., a Nevada corporation ("Parent"), and Ibiza Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $73.39 | today's $56.45 plus 30% |
| × shares | 247.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $18.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $927M | |
| = Enterprise value | $17.2B | 24.0× EBITDA of $719M |
| Fees | $345M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $13.6B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.5B | $777M | $303M | $291M | $3.7B |
| Year 2 | $4.8B | $829M | $280M | $348M | $3.3B |
| Year 3 | $5.0B | $875M | $254M | $404M | $2.9B |
| Year 4 | $5.3B | $912M | $223M | $458M | $2.5B |
| Year 5 | $5.4B | $939M | $188M | $509M | $1.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $17.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $15.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.11× | on $13.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $56.45.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $62.10 | 7.0% |
| 20% | $67.74 | 4.3% |
| 30% | $73.39 | 2.1% |
| 40% | $79.03 | 0.1% |
| 50% | $84.68 | −1.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $719M | 17.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $123M | |
| Capital spending | $58.0M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $927M | |
| Share price | $56.45 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Maplebear would cost about $79.03 a share, $19.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $64.75 | $16.0B |
| Median | 40% | $79.03 | $19.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $90.43 | $22.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-30 · 13D · SC US (TTGP), LTD. (7.9%): On October 28, 2026, the Company entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with DoorDash, Inc., a Nevada corporation ("Parent"), and Ibiza Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly
- 2026-10-29 · 8-K deal · DoorDash to Acquire Instacart to Help Local Stores Win
- 2026-10-29 · deal · Agreed sale to DoorDash, Inc. at $65.0 cash a share · pending
Maplebear's latest quarter
Maplebear, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (+17% year over year), operating margin 15.9%, net earnings $147M, operating cash flow $323M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Maplebear being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-30: SC US (TTGP), LTD. (7.9%): On October 28, 2026, the Company entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with DoorDash, Inc., a Nevada corporation ("Parent"), and Ibiza Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Maplebear?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($73.39 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Maplebear cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Maplebear would cost about $79.03 a share, $19.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.