Filing Flows › Cava Group (CAVA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Cava Group (CAVA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($76.36 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $76.36 | today's $58.74 plus 30% |
| × shares | 118.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $283M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.7B | 67.9× EBITDA of $129M |
| Fees | $175M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $709M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.2B | 92% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.3B | $139M | $54.3M | −$96.5M | $806M |
| Year 2 | $1.4B | $149M | $61.6M | −$105M | $910M |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $157M | $69.7M | −$113M | $1.0B |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $164M | $78.3M | −$122M | $1.1B |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $168M | $87.7M | −$131M | $1.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 51.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.90× | on $8.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $58.74.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $64.61 | 1.8% |
| 20% | $70.49 | −0.2% |
| 30% | $76.36 | −2.0% |
| 40% | $82.24 | −3.6% |
| 50% | $88.11 | −5.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $129M | 10.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $73.7M | |
| Capital spending | $159M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $283M | |
| Share price | $58.74 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cava Group would cost about $77.83 a share, $9.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $70.49 | $8.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $77.83 | $9.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $89.17 | $10.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Cava Group's latest quarter
Cava Group, Q3 2026: revenue $356M (+22% year over year), operating margin 4.2%, net earnings $13.2M, operating cash flow $47.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Cava Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Cava Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($76.36 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Cava Group cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cava Group would cost about $77.83 a share, $9.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.