Filing Flows › CBRE Group (CBRE) › Takeover & LBO
Is CBRE Group (CBRE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($177.25 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $100.21 a share (−27% against today's $136.35). Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $177.25 | today's $136.35 plus 30% |
| × shares | 291.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $51.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $7.9B | |
| − Cash | $1.7B | |
| + Other claims | $344M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $58.3B | 20.0× EBITDA of $2.9B |
| Fees | $1.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $16.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $43.4B | 73% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $48.6B | $3.1B | $1.2B | $839M | $15.2B |
| Year 2 | $51.9B | $3.4B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $14.1B |
| Year 3 | $54.7B | $3.5B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $12.8B |
| Year 4 | $57.1B | $3.7B | $980M | $1.5B | $11.3B |
| Year 5 | $58.8B | $3.8B | $863M | $1.8B | $9.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $60.5B | |
| − Debt left | $9.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $51.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $43.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $136.35; the IRR reaches 20% at $100.21 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $149.99 | 7.6% |
| 20% | $163.62 | 5.3% |
| 30% | $177.25 | 3.3% |
| 40% | $190.89 | 1.4% |
| 50% | $204.52 | −0.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $45.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.9B | 6.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $853M | |
| Capital spending | $465M | |
| Debt | $7.9B | |
| Cash | $1.7B | |
| Share price | $136.35 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CBRE Group would cost about $180.66 a share, $52.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $163.62 | $47.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $180.66 | $52.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $206.98 | $60.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
CBRE Group's latest quarter
CBRE Group, Q3 2026: revenue $11.5B (+13% year over year), operating margin 4.9%, net earnings $443M, operating cash flow $869M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is CBRE Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy CBRE Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($177.25 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $100.21 a share (−27% against today's $136.35).
What would a takeover of CBRE Group cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CBRE Group would cost about $180.66 a share, $52.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.