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Crown Castle (CCI): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1
Crown Castle (CCI): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: low net debt = no refinancing risk; 2 with insufficient data; 4 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low net debt = no refinancing risk Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
$4.7B of debt comes due within a year against $133M of cash and investments and $1.7B of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $2.9B short, to be refinanced or raised. Net debt of $24.2B says nothing about when the debt falls due.
Innocent reading: A committed, undrawn credit facility covers the gap (not visible in the balance sheet).
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not applicable
a financial company: free cash flow after capex is not the measure of its business
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.7% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $73M |
| Revenue | $4.3B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.7% |
| Buybacks | −$23M |
| Buybacks / SBC | -0.3 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 434.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 437.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.7% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not applicable
a financial company: receivables and DSO are not its working capital
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Triggered severity high · confidence medium
$4.7B of debt comes due within a year against $133M of cash and investments and $1.7B of free cash flow over the last twelve months: $2.9B short, to be refinanced or raised. Net debt of $24.2B says nothing about when the debt falls due.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $133M |
| Debt | $24.3B |
| Net debt | $24.2B |
| Due within a year | $4.7B |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $1.7B |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $1.9B |
| Coverage of what is due | 0.4 |
| Due in the second year | $4.2B |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
What would explain it innocently
- A committed, undrawn credit facility covers the gap (not visible in the balance sheet)
- The notes are routinely rolled over in the commercial-paper or bond market at an investment-grade rating
- Cash held abroad or in subsidiaries can be moved to where the debt is
- A sale of a business or asset already agreed brings the cash
What to look for in the filing
- Undrawn committed facilities and their covenants
- The cost and rating of the refinancing
- Restricted cash and the operating minimum
What would show the trap does not apply
- The 10-K lists an undrawn credit facility that covers the debt due, or the maturity is refinanced before it falls due
- Cash plus FCF of the next quarter exceeds the debt due within a year
Look again: next filing.
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 10% and net income fell 12% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 2.5%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.74 |
| EPS | $0.66 |
| Net income, year before | $323M |
| Net income | $283M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 437.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 426.0M shares |
| EPS growth | -10.2% |
| Net income growth | -12.4% |
| Diluted shares: change | -2.5% |
| eps from profit | -$0.09 |
| eps from share count | $0.02 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a financial company: J06 reads its cycle instead
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $444M is below the $2.1B of dividends, as a REIT's usually is: depreciation of buildings is not cash. Operating cash flow of $3.1B covers the dividend 1.5× (1.4× after capex of $182M).
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Net income | $444M |
| operating cash flow | $3.1B |
| dividends paid | $2.1B |
| capex | $182M |
| payout of net income | 4.68 |
| payout of ocf | 0.68 |
| payout of ocf after capex | 0.72 |
a REIT's net income is after depreciation of buildings that usually hold their value, so FFO / AFFO is the payout measure; here operating cash flow and operating cash flow after capex stand in for it (capex includes acquisitions of property where the filing lumps them)
Source: FY2025 (net income, operating cash flow, dividends and capex, fiscal year)
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Crown Castle: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.