Filing Flows › Celanese (CE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Celanese (CE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($62.19 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $30.27 a share (−37% against today's $47.84). It already carries 6.2× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.63× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $62.19 | today's $47.84 plus 30% |
| × shares | 110.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $11.5B | |
| − Cash | $1.4B | |
| + Other claims | $419M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $17.5B | 10.5× EBITDA of $1.7B |
| Fees | $349M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $9.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.7B | 49% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.0B | $1.7B | $696M | $671M | $8.4B |
| Year 2 | $10.2B | $1.7B | $645M | $737M | $7.7B |
| Year 3 | $10.4B | $1.8B | $589M | $812M | $6.9B |
| Year 4 | $10.7B | $1.8B | $527M | $897M | $6.0B |
| Year 5 | $11.0B | $1.9B | $458M | $993M | $5.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $17.8B | |
| − Debt left | $5.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $12.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.47× | on $8.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 8.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $47.84; the IRR reaches 20% at $30.27 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $52.62 | 10.9% |
| 20% | $57.41 | 9.4% |
| 30% | $62.19 | 8.0% |
| 40% | $66.98 | 6.7% |
| 50% | $71.76 | 5.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.7B | 16.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $874M | |
| Capital spending | $281M | |
| Debt | $11.5B | |
| Cash | $1.4B | |
| Share price | $47.84 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 13% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Celanese would cost about $63.39 a share, $7.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $57.41 | $6.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $63.39 | $7.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $72.62 | $8.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.63× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Celanese's latest quarter
Celanese, Q3 2026: revenue $2.6B (+6% year over year), operating margin 7.7%, net earnings $74.0M, operating cash flow $538M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Celanese being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Celanese?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($62.19 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $30.27 a share (−37% against today's $47.84). It already carries 6.2× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Celanese cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Celanese would cost about $63.39 a share, $7.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.