Filing Flows › Church & Dwight (CHD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Church & Dwight (CHD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($142.79 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $68.17 a share (−38% against today's $109.84). Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.63× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $142.79 | today's $109.84 plus 30% |
| × shares | 238.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $34.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.3B | |
| − Cash | $447M | |
| = Enterprise value | $35.9B | 26.3× EBITDA of $1.4B |
| Fees | $718M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $29.1B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.4B | $1.4B | $575M | $532M | $7.0B |
| Year 2 | $6.5B | $1.4B | $534M | $582M | $6.4B |
| Year 3 | $6.6B | $1.5B | $490M | $638M | $5.8B |
| Year 4 | $6.8B | $1.5B | $441M | $702M | $5.1B |
| Year 5 | $7.0B | $1.5B | $387M | $773M | $4.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 20.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $31.5B | |
| − Debt left | $4.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $27.2B | |
| Money multiple | 0.93× | on $29.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $109.84; the IRR reaches 20% at $68.17 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $120.82 | 2.7% |
| 20% | $131.81 | 0.6% |
| 30% | $142.79 | −1.3% |
| 40% | $153.78 | −3.1% |
| 50% | $164.76 | −4.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.4B | 21.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $242M | |
| Capital spending | $147M | |
| Debt | $2.3B | |
| Cash | $447M | |
| Share price | $109.84 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Church & Dwight would cost about $145.54 a share, $34.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $131.81 | $31.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $145.54 | $34.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $166.74 | $39.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.63× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Church & Dwight's latest quarter
Church & Dwight, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+1% year over year), operating margin 18.2%, net earnings $212M, operating cash flow $380M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Church & Dwight being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Church & Dwight?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($142.79 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $68.17 a share (−38% against today's $109.84).
What would a takeover of Church & Dwight cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Church & Dwight would cost about $145.54 a share, $34.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.