Filing Flows › Churchill Downs (CHDN) › Stock forecast & fair value
Churchill Downs (CHDN) stock forecast and fair value
Churchill Downs (CHDN) trades at $97.94. 12 analysts' median price target is $125.00 (+28%), from $105.00 to $153.00. Across 30 valuation methods the middle fair value is $97.56 (-0.4%); the DCF says $100.83.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–90th | $23.14 | $141.98 | $457.02 | +45% |
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | $29.97 | $100.83 | $195.37 | +3% |
| P/E vs peers | $133.86 | $165.52 | $243.18 | +69% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $143.98 | $218.67 | $460.44 | +123% |
| P/E vs peers, matched | $124.54 | $165.52 | $248.93 | +69% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | $76.48 | $97.06 | $152.19 | -0.9% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $85.28 | $96.44 | $145.34 | -2% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, matched | $87.24 | $98.66 | $143.91 | +0.7% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $8.07 | $42.24 | $74.59 | -57% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $11.10 | $45.69 | $74.62 | -53% |
Churchill Downs' latest quarter
Churchill Downs, Q3 2026: revenue $696M (+2% year over year), operating margin 20.5%, net earnings $80.0M, operating cash flow $148M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for CHDN stock?
The median of 12 analysts' 12-month targets is $125.00, +28% from $97.94; the range is $105.00 to $153.00. The average rating is strong buy.
What is Churchill Downs' fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $10.81 and $218.67, with a middle value of $97.56 against a price of $97.94. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Churchill Downs usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 80% of the quarters on record.
Is CHDN stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.