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Oglethorpe Power (): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 13, 2026; rules v1.1
Oglethorpe Power (): 2 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026: receivables growing = future cash is certain; low net debt = no refinancing risk; 5 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 47% year over year in Q2 2026 against revenue growth of -7%, and the quarter before 48% against 9%; days sales outstanding is 57 against a median of 44 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
Innocent reading: Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments.
Low net debt = no refinancing risk Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
$1.1B of debt comes due within a year against $188M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $947M short, to be refinanced or raised. Net debt of $13.1B says nothing about when the debt falls due.
Innocent reading: A committed, undrawn credit facility covers the gap (not visible in the balance sheet).
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise (−$233M → −$388M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $429M |
| Operating cash flow | $502M |
| Capex, year before | $662M |
| Capex | $890M |
| Free cash flow, year before | −$233M |
| Free cash flow | −$388M |
| Change in FCF | −$155M |
| Change in capex | $228M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $5M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 47% year over year in Q2 2026 against revenue growth of -7%, and the quarter before 48% against 9%; days sales outstanding is 57 against a median of 44 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | -7.0% |
| Receivables, year over year | +47.4% |
| Quarter before | Q1 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +8.8% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +48.4% |
| Days sales outstanding | 57.5 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 43.8 |
| Receivables | $400M |
| Revenue | $589M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q2 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Triggered severity high · confidence medium
$1.1B of debt comes due within a year against $188M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $947M short, to be refinanced or raised. Net debt of $13.1B says nothing about when the debt falls due.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $188M |
| Debt | $13.3B |
| Net debt | $13.1B |
| Due within a year | $1.1B |
| Read from | the current portion of debt on the balance sheet |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$677M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $188M |
| Coverage of what is due | 0.2 |
| Due in the second year | — |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: 2026-06-30 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
What would explain it innocently
- A committed, undrawn credit facility covers the gap (not visible in the balance sheet)
- The notes are routinely rolled over in the commercial-paper or bond market at an investment-grade rating
- Cash held abroad or in subsidiaries can be moved to where the debt is
- A sale of a business or asset already agreed brings the cash
What to look for in the filing
- Undrawn committed facilities and their covenants
- The cost and rating of the refinancing
- Restricted cash and the operating minimum
What would show the trap does not apply
- The 10-K lists an undrawn credit facility that covers the debt due, or the maturity is refinanced before it falls due
- Cash plus FCF of the next quarter exceeds the debt due within a year
Look again: next filing.
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
no market value or trailing net income in the valuation research
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Oglethorpe Power: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.