Filing Flows › Comcast (CMCSA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Comcast (CMCSA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($32.44 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $21.61 a share (−13% against today's $24.95). At $195.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $32.44 | today's $24.95 plus 30% |
| × shares | 3,562.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $115.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $87.4B | |
| − Cash | $7.6B | |
| + Other claims | −$33.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $195.3B | 5.8× EBITDA of $33.5B |
| Fees | $3.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $126.9B | 3.8× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $72.2B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $122.7B | $33.5B | $9.7B | $9.9B | $117.0B |
| Year 2 | $123.4B | $33.6B | $9.0B | $10.5B | $106.5B |
| Year 3 | $125.1B | $34.1B | $8.2B | $11.3B | $95.3B |
| Year 4 | $127.8B | $34.9B | $7.3B | $12.2B | $83.0B |
| Year 5 | $131.7B | $35.9B | $6.4B | $13.4B | $69.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $180.5B | |
| − Debt left | $69.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $110.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.53× | on $72.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 8.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $24.95; the IRR reaches 20% at $21.61 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $27.45 | 14.0% |
| 20% | $29.94 | 11.4% |
| 30% | $32.44 | 8.9% |
| 40% | $34.93 | 6.4% |
| 50% | $37.42 | 3.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $123.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $33.5B | 27.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $15.4B | |
| Capital spending | $12.1B | |
| Debt | $87.4B | |
| Cash | $7.6B | |
| Share price | $24.95 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Comcast would cost about $33.06 a share, $117.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $29.94 | $106.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $33.06 | $117.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $37.87 | $134.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Comcast's latest quarter
Comcast, Q3 2026: revenue $29.3B (-6% year over year), operating margin 18.2%, net earnings $3.4B, operating cash flow $7.9B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Comcast being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Comcast?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($32.44 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $21.61 a share (−13% against today's $24.95). At $195.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Comcast cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Comcast would cost about $33.06 a share, $117.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.