Filing Flows › Companies › Chipotle Mexican Grill › Analysis traps
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 29, 2026; rules v1.1
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 17.21 a share (price 34.43); 79% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 13.39 to 21.04; across every method the research ran the range is 5 to 68. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($1.5B → $1.4B): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $2.1B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.1B |
| Capex, year before | $594M |
| Capex | $666M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $1.5B |
| Free cash flow | $1.4B |
| Change in FCF | −$64M |
| Change in capex | $73M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$139M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.0% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $120M |
| Revenue | $11.9B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.0% |
| Buybacks | $2.4B |
| Buybacks / SBC | 20.3 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 1,376.6M shares |
| Diluted shares | 1,342.6M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -2.5% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 4% against revenue 10% in Q3 2026; DSO 3 against a median of 4: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +9.7% |
| Receivables, year over year | +3.9% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +9.3% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -4.5% |
| Days sales outstanding | 2.8 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 3.7 |
| Receivables | $100M |
| Revenue | $3.3B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 6% and net income fell 11% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 5.4%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.28 |
| EPS | $0.27 |
| Net income, year before | $382M |
| Net income | $340M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 1,339.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 1,267.7M shares |
| EPS growth | -6.0% |
| Net income growth | -11.1% |
| Diluted shares: change | -5.4% |
| eps from profit | -$0.03 |
| eps from share count | $0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $1.4B is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $899M, best $1.5B): the P/E of 31.7× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $43.6B |
| net income ttm | $1.4B |
| pe ttm | 31.70 |
| net income median fy | $899M |
| pe mid cycle | 48.50 |
| net income peak fy | $1.5B |
| years | FY2018 / 177.0; FY2019 / 350.0; FY2020 / 356.0; FY2021 / 653.0; FY2022 / 899.0; FY2023 / 1229.0; FY2024 / 1534.0; FY2025 / 1536.0 |
| down years in window | 0 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 17.21 a share (price 34.43); 79% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 13.39 to 21.04; across every method the research ran the range is 5 to 68. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 17.21 |
| price | 34.43 |
| terminal value share | +79.1% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 13.39 / 21.04; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 14.13 / 20.91; WACC / ±1 pt / 14.89 / 20.38; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 16.02 / 18.41 |
| range all methods | 5.44; 68.11 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Chipotle Mexican Grill: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.