Filing Flows › CMS Energy (CMS) › Takeover & LBO
Is CMS Energy (CMS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($90.27 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $44.16 a share (−36% against today's $69.44). It already carries 7.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $90.27 | today's $69.44 plus 30% |
| × shares | 313.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $28.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $20.0B | |
| − Cash | $451M | |
| + Other claims | $793M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $48.7B | 18.7× EBITDA of $2.6B |
| Fees | $973M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $14.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $35.4B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.7B | $2.8B | $1.1B | $1.6B | $12.7B |
| Year 2 | $10.3B | $3.0B | $971M | $1.9B | $10.8B |
| Year 3 | $10.9B | $3.2B | $829M | $2.1B | $8.7B |
| Year 4 | $11.4B | $3.3B | $667M | $2.4B | $6.3B |
| Year 5 | $11.7B | $3.4B | $485M | $2.6B | $3.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $55.0B | |
| − Debt left | $3.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $51.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.45× | on $35.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $69.44; the IRR reaches 20% at $44.16 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $76.38 | 10.7% |
| 20% | $83.33 | 9.1% |
| 30% | $90.27 | 7.7% |
| 40% | $97.22 | 6.4% |
| 50% | $104.16 | 5.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.6B | 28.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Debt | $20.0B | |
| Cash | $451M | |
| Share price | $69.44 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CMS Energy would cost about $92.01 a share, $28.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $83.33 | $26.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $92.01 | $28.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $105.41 | $33.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
CMS Energy's latest quarter
CMS Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $2.2B (+8% year over year), operating margin 2.2%, net loss $91.0M, operating cash flow $471M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is CMS Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy CMS Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($90.27 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $44.16 a share (−36% against today's $69.44). It already carries 7.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of CMS Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CMS Energy would cost about $92.01 a share, $28.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.