Filing Flows › Coinbase Global (COIN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Coinbase Global (COIN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($173.55 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $173.55 | today's $133.50 plus 30% |
| × shares | 288.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $50.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $6.6B | |
| − Cash | $8.8B | |
| = Enterprise value | $47.8B | 102.8× EBITDA of $465M |
| Fees | $956M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $46.2B | 95% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.5B | $451M | $196M | $256M | $2.3B |
| Year 2 | $5.4B | $445M | $176M | $265M | $2.0B |
| Year 3 | $5.4B | $445M | $156M | $281M | $1.8B |
| Year 4 | $5.5B | $451M | $134M | $296M | $1.5B |
| Year 5 | $5.6B | $465M | $112M | $318M | $1.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 78.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $36.2B | |
| − Debt left | $1.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $35.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.76× | on $46.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −5.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $133.50.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $146.85 | −1.8% |
| 20% | $160.20 | −3.7% |
| 30% | $173.55 | −5.4% |
| 40% | $186.90 | −6.9% |
| 50% | $200.25 | −8.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $465M | 8.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $265M | |
| Debt | $6.6B | |
| Cash | $8.8B | |
| Share price | $133.50 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Coinbase Global would cost about $153.39 a share, $44.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $146.18 | $42.1B |
| Median | 14.9% | $153.39 | $44.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $178.36 | $51.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Coinbase Global's latest quarter
Coinbase Global, Q3 2026: revenue $1.2B (-35% year over year), operating margin 5.1%, net earnings $719M, operating cash flow $405M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Coinbase Global being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Coinbase Global?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($173.55 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Coinbase Global cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Coinbase Global would cost about $153.39 a share, $44.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.