Filing Flows › Concentra Group Holdings Parent (CON) › Takeover & LBO
Is Concentra Group Holdings Parent (CON) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.49 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $30.96 a share (−23% against today's $40.38). Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-05): Concentra Announces Results For Its Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2026.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $52.49 | today's $40.38 plus 30% |
| × shares | 127.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.5B | |
| − Cash | $85.8M | |
| + Other claims | $7.8M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $8.1B | 17.1× EBITDA of $476M |
| Fees | $162M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.7B | 68% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.5B | $514M | $200M | $167M | $2.4B |
| Year 2 | $2.7B | $548M | $187M | $201M | $2.2B |
| Year 3 | $2.8B | $578M | $172M | $235M | $2.0B |
| Year 4 | $3.0B | $603M | $154M | $268M | $1.7B |
| Year 5 | $3.1B | $621M | $133M | $298M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.6B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.26× | on $5.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $40.38; the IRR reaches 20% at $30.96 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $44.42 | 9.1% |
| 20% | $48.46 | 6.8% |
| 30% | $52.49 | 4.8% |
| 40% | $56.53 | 2.9% |
| 50% | $60.57 | 1.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $476M | 20.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $80.0M | |
| Capital spending | $69.4M | |
| Debt | $1.5B | |
| Cash | $85.8M | |
| Share price | $40.38 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Concentra Group Holdings Parent would cost about $54.51 a share, $6.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $49.26 | $6.3B |
| Median | 35% | $54.51 | $6.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $58.55 | $7.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-05 · 8-K deal · Concentra Announces Results For Its Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2026
Concentra Group Holdings Parent's latest quarter
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Q3 2026: revenue $622M (+9% year over year), operating margin 18.5%, net earnings $65.9M, operating cash flow $51.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Concentra Group Holdings Parent being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-05: Concentra Announces Results For Its Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2026. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Concentra Group Holdings Parent?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.49 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $30.96 a share (−23% against today's $40.38).
What would a takeover of Concentra Group Holdings Parent cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Concentra Group Holdings Parent would cost about $54.51 a share, $6.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.