Filing Flows › Coty (COTY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Coty (COTY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($5.21 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $1.37 a share (−66% against today's $4.01). It already carries 6.8× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $5.21 | today's $4.01 plus 30% |
| × shares | 882.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.8B | |
| − Cash | $211M | |
| + Other claims | $170M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $7.3B | 19.4× EBITDA of $378M |
| Fees | $147M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.4B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.8B | $378M | $159M | $37.4M | $2.0B |
| Year 2 | $5.8B | $380M | $156M | $38.1M | $2.0B |
| Year 3 | $5.9B | $385M | $153M | $39.0M | $2.0B |
| Year 4 | $6.0B | $393M | $151M | $41.5M | $1.9B |
| Year 5 | $6.2B | $405M | $147M | $45.6M | $1.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.8B | |
| Money multiple | 0.90× | on $5.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $4.01; the IRR reaches 20% at $1.37 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $4.41 | 0.7% |
| 20% | $4.81 | −0.8% |
| 30% | $5.21 | −2.2% |
| 40% | $5.61 | −3.4% |
| 50% | $6.02 | −4.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $378M | 6.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $475M | |
| Capital spending | $181M | |
| Debt | $2.8B | |
| Cash | $211M | |
| Share price | $4.01 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Coty would cost about $5.31 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $4.81 | $4.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $5.31 | $4.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $6.09 | $5.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Coty's latest quarter
Coty, Q1 FY27: revenue $1.6B (-1% year over year), operating margin 11.0%, net earnings $110M, operating cash flow $130M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Coty being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Coty?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($5.21 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $1.37 a share (−66% against today's $4.01). It already carries 6.8× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Coty cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Coty would cost about $5.31 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.