Filing Flows › Crescent Energy (CRGY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Crescent Energy (CRGY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.64 a share) would return about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $14.15 a share (26% against today's $11.26). Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-02): Crescent Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $14.64 | today's $11.26 plus 30% |
| × shares | 422.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.7B | |
| − Cash | $6.1M | |
| + Other claims | $8.7M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $10.9B | 4.0× EBITDA of $2.7B |
| Fees | $218M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.1B | 2.6× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $4.0B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.2B | $2.9B | $542M | $661M | $6.4B |
| Year 2 | $5.5B | $3.1B | $492M | $772M | $5.7B |
| Year 3 | $5.8B | $3.3B | $433M | $881M | $4.8B |
| Year 4 | $6.1B | $3.4B | $365M | $986M | $3.8B |
| Year 5 | $6.3B | $3.5B | $290M | $1.1B | $2.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $12.4B | |
| − Debt left | $2.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $9.7B | |
| Money multiple | 2.40× | on $4.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 19.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.26; the IRR reaches 20% at $14.15 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $12.39 | 23.3% |
| 20% | $13.51 | 21.2% |
| 30% | $14.64 | 19.1% |
| 40% | $15.76 | 17.1% |
| 50% | $16.89 | 15.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.7B | 56.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Capital spending | $1.3B | |
| Debt | $4.7B | |
| Cash | $6.1M | |
| Share price | $11.26 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Crescent Energy would cost about $14.92 a share, $6.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $13.51 | $5.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $14.92 | $6.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $17.09 | $7.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-02 · 8-K deal · Crescent Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
Crescent Energy's latest quarter
Crescent Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $1.4B (+56% year over year), operating margin 35.4%, net loss $591K, operating cash flow $608M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Crescent Energy being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-02: Crescent Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Crescent Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.64 a share) would return about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $14.15 a share (26% against today's $11.26).
What would a takeover of Crescent Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Crescent Energy would cost about $14.92 a share, $6.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.