Filing Flows › Crocs (CROX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Crocs (CROX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($195.68 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $133.60 a share (−11% against today's $150.52). Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.79× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $195.68 | today's $150.52 plus 30% |
| × shares | 48.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.3B | |
| − Cash | $163M | |
| = Enterprise value | $10.5B | 10.4× EBITDA of $1.0B |
| Fees | $210M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.2B | 48% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.1B | $1.0B | $424M | $417M | $5.1B |
| Year 2 | $4.2B | $1.0B | $392M | $450M | $4.7B |
| Year 3 | $4.3B | $1.0B | $357M | $488M | $4.2B |
| Year 4 | $4.4B | $1.1B | $320M | $534M | $3.6B |
| Year 5 | $4.5B | $1.1B | $279M | $587M | $3.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $9.1B | |
| − Debt left | $3.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $5.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $150.52; the IRR reaches 20% at $133.60 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $165.57 | 10.4% |
| 20% | $180.62 | 6.5% |
| 30% | $195.68 | 3.2% |
| 40% | $210.73 | 0.5% |
| 50% | $225.78 | −1.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.0B | 24.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $81.8M | |
| Capital spending | $59.7M | |
| Debt | $1.3B | |
| Cash | $163M | |
| Share price | $150.52 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Crocs would cost about $199.44 a share, $9.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $180.62 | $8.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $199.44 | $9.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $228.49 | $11.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.79× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Crocs' latest quarter
Crocs, Q3 2026: revenue $1.0B (+5% year over year), operating margin 28.0%, net earnings $217M, operating cash flow $290M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Crocs being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Crocs?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($195.68 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $133.60 a share (−11% against today's $150.52).
What would a takeover of Crocs cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Crocs would cost about $199.44 a share, $9.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.