Filing Flows › Carpenter Technology (CRS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Carpenter Technology (CRS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($368.00 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $208.92 a share (−26% against today's $283.08). Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $368.00 | today's $283.08 plus 30% |
| × shares | 50.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $18.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $691M | |
| − Cash | $160M | |
| = Enterprise value | $18.9B | 21.2× EBITDA of $893M |
| Fees | $379M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $14.4B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.4B | $964M | $376M | $181M | $4.7B |
| Year 2 | $3.7B | $1.0B | $362M | $229M | $4.5B |
| Year 3 | $3.9B | $1.1B | $344M | $277M | $4.2B |
| Year 4 | $4.0B | $1.1B | $323M | $322M | $3.9B |
| Year 5 | $4.2B | $1.2B | $298M | $364M | $3.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $19.2B | |
| − Debt left | $3.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $15.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $14.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $283.08; the IRR reaches 20% at $208.92 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $311.39 | 6.3% |
| 20% | $339.70 | 3.8% |
| 30% | $368.00 | 1.7% |
| 40% | $396.31 | −0.3% |
| 50% | $424.62 | −2.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $893M | 28.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $148M | |
| Capital spending | $278M | |
| Debt | $691M | |
| Cash | $160M | |
| Share price | $283.08 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Carpenter Technology would cost about $375.08 a share, $18.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $339.70 | $17.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $375.08 | $18.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $429.72 | $21.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Carpenter Technology's latest quarter
Carpenter Technology, Q1 FY27: revenue $798M (+9% year over year), operating margin 24.6%, net earnings $162M, operating cash flow $52.8M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Carpenter Technology being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Carpenter Technology?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($368.00 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $208.92 a share (−26% against today's $283.08).
What would a takeover of Carpenter Technology cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Carpenter Technology would cost about $375.08 a share, $18.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.