Filing Flows › Carlisle Companies (CSL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Carlisle Companies (CSL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($489.20 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $271.87 a share (−28% against today's $376.31). Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $489.20 | today's $376.31 plus 30% |
| × shares | 39.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $19.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.9B | |
| − Cash | $547M | |
| = Enterprise value | $21.7B | 17.9× EBITDA of $1.2B |
| Fees | $434M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $15.5B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.4B | $1.3B | $510M | $453M | $6.2B |
| Year 2 | $5.6B | $1.3B | $476M | $513M | $5.7B |
| Year 3 | $5.8B | $1.4B | $436M | $575M | $5.1B |
| Year 4 | $6.0B | $1.4B | $392M | $640M | $4.5B |
| Year 5 | $6.2B | $1.4B | $343M | $708M | $3.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $20.5B | |
| − Debt left | $3.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $16.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.08× | on $15.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $376.31; the IRR reaches 20% at $271.87 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $413.94 | 6.0% |
| 20% | $451.57 | 3.6% |
| 30% | $489.20 | 1.5% |
| 40% | $526.83 | −0.4% |
| 50% | $564.47 | −2.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.2B | 23.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $197M | |
| Capital spending | $147M | |
| Debt | $2.9B | |
| Cash | $547M | |
| Share price | $376.31 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Carlisle Companies would cost about $498.61 a share, $19.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $451.57 | $17.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $498.61 | $19.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $571.24 | $22.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Carlisle Companies' latest quarter
Carlisle Companies, Q3 2026: revenue $1.5B (+9% year over year), operating margin 20.0%, net earnings $208M, operating cash flow $314M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Carlisle Companies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Carlisle Companies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($489.20 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $271.87 a share (−28% against today's $376.31).
What would a takeover of Carlisle Companies cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Carlisle Companies would cost about $498.61 a share, $19.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.