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Commvault Systems (CVLT): analysis traps

Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 FY27, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 28, 2026; rules v1.1

Commvault Systems (CVLT): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.

Check these first

A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high

The DCF's point value is 40.53 a share (price 169.37); 70% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 31.12 to 49.94; across every method the research ran the range is 9 to 250. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.

Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.

Every rule

A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium

Free cash flow rose $34M to $237M; working capital and lower capex explain 0% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.

The figures and how they are read

Fiscal year before	FY25
Fiscal year	FY26
Operating cash flow, year before	$207M
Operating cash flow	$245M
Capex, year before	$4M
Capex	$8M
Free cash flow, year before	$204M
Free cash flow	$237M
Change in FCF	$34M
Change in capex	$4M
Working capital: change in its cash contribution	−$27M
Of which: capex cut	0.00
Of which: working capital released	0.00
Share of the increase that need not repeat	+0.0%
Operating cash flow before working capital: change	64558000.00

FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement

Source: FY26 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)

A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high

Stock compensation is 10.4% of revenue, but buybacks of $446M covered it (3.6×) and the diluted share count fell 1.2%: the dilution has been paid for in cash.

The figures and how they are read

Fiscal year	FY26
Stock compensation	$123M
Revenue	$1.2B
SBC / revenue	+10.4%
Buybacks	$446M
Buybacks / SBC	3.6
Diluted shares, year before	45.2M shares
Diluted shares	44.7M shares
Diluted shares: change	-1.2%

SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section

Source: FY26 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)

B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium

Receivables grew 19% against revenue 13% in Q2 FY27; DSO 81 against a median of 86: collections are keeping pace with sales.

The figures and how they are read

Quarter	Q2 FY27
Revenue, year over year	+13.1%
Receivables, year over year	+19.5%
Quarter before	Q1 FY27
Revenue y/y, quarter before	+11.4%
Receivables y/y, quarter before	+6.3%
Days sales outstanding	81.3
DSO, median of eight quarters	85.6
Receivables	$281M
Revenue	$312M

receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before

Source: Q2 FY27 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)

B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data

no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS

C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data

no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)

D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high

EPS rose 111% and net income rose 98% in Q2 FY27; the share count fell 6.6%: EPS growth follows profit growth.

The figures and how they are read

Quarter	Q2 FY27
Quarter before	Q2 FY26
EPS, year before	$0.33
EPS	$0.69
Net income, year before	$15M
Net income	$29M
Diluted shares, year before	45.2M shares
Diluted shares	42.2M shares
EPS growth	+111.3%
Net income growth	+97.6%
Diluted shares: change	-6.6%
eps from profit	$0.32
eps from share count	$0.05

EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)

Source: Q2 FY27 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q2 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)

E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium

Net income of $83M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $34M, best $169M): the P/E of 85.8× is on a normal year.

The figures and how they are read

market value	$7.1B
net income ttm	$83M
pe ttm	85.80
net income median fy	$34M
pe mid cycle	210.90
net income peak fy	$169M
years	FY19 / 4.0; FY20 / -6.0; FY21 / -31.0; FY22 / 34.0; FY23 / -36.0; FY24 / 169.0; FY25 / 76.0; FY26 / 71.0
down years in window	5

P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median

Source: Q2 FY27 (net income, trailing twelve months)

E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high

The figures and how they are read

dcf value	40.53
price	169.37
terminal value share	+69.7%
swing by input	Operating margin / ±3 pts / 31.12 / 49.94; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 37.73 / 43.84; WACC / ±1 pt / 38.49 / 43.14; Capex (share of revenue) / ±1 pt / 39.03 / 42.03
range all methods	9.12; 249.66

the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran

Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)

What would explain it innocently

A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)

What to look for in the filing

Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)

What would show the trap does not apply

The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years

Look again: next filing.

J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable

not a bank

J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable

not a REIT

What the statuses mean

Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.

Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.

Record a view

A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).

Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Commvault Systems: cash flow → Earnings quality score →

Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.