Filing Flows › Commvault Systems (CVLT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Commvault Systems (CVLT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($220.18 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.93× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $220.18 | today's $169.37 plus 30% |
| × shares | 41.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $930M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.3B | 97.9× EBITDA of $84.7M |
| Fees | $166M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $466M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.0B | 94% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.3B | $91.5M | $35.6M | $25.9M | $440M |
| Year 2 | $1.4B | $97.6M | $33.6M | $32.3M | $408M |
| Year 3 | $1.5B | $103M | $31.2M | $38.7M | $369M |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $107M | $28.2M | $45.1M | $324M |
| Year 5 | $1.6B | $111M | $24.8M | $51.3M | $272M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 72.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.0B | |
| − Debt left | $272M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.8B | |
| Money multiple | 0.97× | on $8.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $169.37.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $186.31 | 3.5% |
| 20% | $203.24 | 1.4% |
| 30% | $220.18 | −0.5% |
| 40% | $237.12 | −2.3% |
| 50% | $254.06 | −3.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $84.7M | 7.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $10.1M | |
| Capital spending | $6.2M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $930M | |
| Share price | $169.37 | on Oct 23, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Commvault Systems would cost about $220.18 a share, $9.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $189.69 | $7.9B |
| Median | 30% | $220.18 | $9.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $221.87 | $9.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.93× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Commvault Systems' latest quarter
Commvault Systems, Q2 FY27: revenue $312M (+13% year over year), operating margin 9.7%, net earnings $29.1M, operating cash flow $74.8M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Commvault Systems being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Commvault Systems?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($220.18 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Commvault Systems cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Commvault Systems would cost about $220.18 a share, $9.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.