Filing Flows › CVS Health (CVS) › Takeover & LBO
Is CVS Health (CVS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($105.73 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $81.84 a share (1% against today's $81.33). At $182.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.33× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $105.73 | today's $81.33 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,291.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $136.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $60.7B | |
| − Cash | $14.9B | |
| + Other claims | $192M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $182.5B | 9.3× EBITDA of $19.6B |
| Fees | $3.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $107.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $78.4B | 42% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $448.9B | $20.9B | $8.2B | $5.5B | $102.2B |
| Year 2 | $475.0B | $22.1B | $7.8B | $7.0B | $95.1B |
| Year 3 | $498.1B | $23.2B | $7.3B | $8.6B | $86.5B |
| Year 4 | $517.7B | $24.1B | $6.6B | $10.2B | $76.3B |
| Year 5 | $533.2B | $24.8B | $5.8B | $11.9B | $64.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $191.4B | |
| − Debt left | $64.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $127.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.62× | on $78.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $81.33; the IRR reaches 20% at $81.84 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $89.46 | 17.0% |
| 20% | $97.60 | 13.4% |
| 30% | $105.73 | 10.1% |
| 40% | $113.86 | 7.3% |
| 50% | $122.00 | 4.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $420.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $19.6B | 4.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $4.5B | |
| Capital spending | $3.1B | |
| Debt | $60.7B | |
| Cash | $14.9B | |
| Share price | $81.33 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CVS Health would cost about $107.76 a share, $139.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $97.60 | $126.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $107.76 | $139.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $123.46 | $159.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.33× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
CVS Health's latest quarter
CVS Health, Q3 2026: revenue $108.4B (+5% year over year), operating margin 3.3%, net earnings $2.2B, operating cash flow $4.7B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is CVS Health being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy CVS Health?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($105.73 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $81.84 a share (1% against today's $81.33). At $182.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of CVS Health cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CVS Health would cost about $107.76 a share, $139.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.