Filing Flows › Companies › Dominion Energy › Analysis traps
Dominion Energy (D): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 30, 2026; rules v1.1
Dominion Energy (D): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 2 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $3.2B is at a high against a median of $2.1B over eight years; at 19.4× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (28.9×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 98.50 a share (price 69.64); 74% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 67.67 to 152.20; across every method the research ran the range is -5 to 350. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.3% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $46M |
| Revenue | $16.5B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.3% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 839.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 855.3M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +1.9% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 35% against revenue 24% in Q3 2026; DSO 48 against a median of 52: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +24.1% |
| Receivables, year over year | +35.4% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +17.6% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +20.9% |
| Days sales outstanding | 48.0 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 51.8 |
| Receivables | $3.1B |
| Revenue | $5.6B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$2.3B comes due within a year, 2.7× covered by cash and investments of $435M plus $5.7B of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $435M |
| Debt | $49.6B |
| Net debt | $49.2B |
| Due within a year | $2.3B |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $5.7B |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $6.1B |
| Coverage of what is due | 2.7 |
| Due in the second year | $2.0B |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 12% and net income rose 15% in Q3 2026; the share count rose 3.1%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $1.18 |
| EPS | $1.31 |
| Net income, year before | $1.0B |
| Net income | $1.2B |
| Diluted shares, year before | 855.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 882.1M shares |
| EPS growth | +11.8% |
| Net income growth | +15.3% |
| Diluted shares: change | +3.1% |
| eps from profit | $0.18 |
| eps from share count | -$0.04 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $3.2B is at a high against a median of $2.1B over eight years; at 19.4× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (28.9×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $61.3B |
| net income ttm | $3.2B |
| pe ttm | 19.40 |
| net income median fy | $2.1B |
| pe mid cycle | 28.90 |
| net income peak fy | $3.3B |
| years | FY2018 / 2447.0; FY2019 / 1358.0; FY2020 / -401.0; FY2021 / 3288.0; FY2022 / 994.0; FY2023 / 1994.0; FY2024 / 2124.0; FY2025 / 2998.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 98.50 a share (price 69.64); 74% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 67.67 to 152.20; across every method the research ran the range is -5 to 350. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 98.50 |
| price | 69.64 |
| terminal value share | +73.5% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 67.67 / 152.2; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 69.22 / 133.19; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 81.94 / 115.06; Terminal growth / ±0.5 pt / 90.66 / 108.75 |
| range all methods | -5.07; 350.24 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Dominion Energy: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.