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Ducommun (DCO): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Oct 3, 2026, filed Nov 5, 2026; rules v1.1
Ducommun (DCO): 2 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Oct 3, 2026: receivables growing = future cash is certain; stock compensation added back = no economic cost; 2 with insufficient data; 4 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 47% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 6%, and the quarter before 24% against 12%; days sales outstanding is 62 against a median of 52 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
Innocent reading: Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments.
Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered · severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $28M, 3.4% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
Innocent reading: A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($20M → −$49M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $34M |
| Operating cash flow | −$33M |
| Capex, year before | $14M |
| Capex | $15M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $20M |
| Free cash flow | −$49M |
| Change in FCF | −$69M |
| Change in capex | $1M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$16M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $28M, 3.4% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $0 (0.0× the SBC) and buybacks did not cover it. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $28M |
| Revenue | $825M |
| SBC / revenue | +3.5% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 15.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 14.9M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.5% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
What would explain it innocently
- A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows
- Buybacks at prices below intrinsic value make up for the dilution over time
- A one-off grant (an acquisition, a founder award) rather than a steady level
What to look for in the filing
- The share count after the latest buybacks (the next 10-Q's cover)
- The price paid for the buybacks against the shares' value
- Unvested awards outstanding
What would show the trap does not apply
- The diluted share count falls over two years with buybacks at least equal to the stock compensation
- Stock compensation falls as a share of revenue in each of the next two years
Look again: next filing.
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 47% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 6%, and the quarter before 24% against 12%; days sales outstanding is 62 against a median of 52 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +5.9% |
| Receivables, year over year | +46.6% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +11.8% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +24.5% |
| Days sales outstanding | 62.1 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 52.0 |
| Receivables | $163M |
| Revenue | $227M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$5M comes due within a year, 7.8× covered by cash and investments of $39M.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $39M |
| Debt | $245M |
| Net debt | $206M |
| Due within a year | $5M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$14M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $39M |
| Coverage of what is due | 7.8 |
| Due in the second year | $5M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-10-03 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a loss on a trailing or mid-cycle basis: the P/E has no meaning
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Ducommun: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.