Filing Flows › Diversified Energy (DEC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Diversified Energy (DEC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($18.77 a share) would return about 30% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $33.57 a share (132% against today's $14.44). Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.95× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $18.77 | today's $14.44 plus 30% |
| × shares | 74.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.8B | |
| − Cash | $8.2M | |
| + Other claims | $10.9M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.2B | 3.8× EBITDA of $1.1B |
| Fees | $84.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.7B | 2.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.6B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.1B | $1.1B | $210M | $672M | $2.1B |
| Year 2 | $2.1B | $1.2B | $159M | $743M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $2.2B | $1.2B | $102M | $820M | $513M |
| Year 4 | $2.3B | $1.2B | $39.3M | $902M | $0 |
| Year 5 | $2.3B | $1.3B | $0 | $965M | $0 |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.5B | |
| − Debt left | $0 | |
| + Cash built up | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.9B | |
| Money multiple | 3.76× | on $1.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 30.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $14.44; the IRR reaches 20% at $33.57 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $15.88 | 32.5% |
| 20% | $17.33 | 31.4% |
| 30% | $18.77 | 30.3% |
| 40% | $20.22 | 29.3% |
| 50% | $21.66 | 28.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.1B | 55.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $457M | |
| Capital spending | $194M | |
| Debt | $2.8B | |
| Cash | $8.2M | |
| Share price | $14.44 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Diversified Energy would cost about $19.13 a share, $1.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $17.33 | $1.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $19.13 | $1.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $21.92 | $1.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.95× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Diversified Energy's latest quarter
Diversified Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $109M (-78% year over year), operating margin -216.8%, net loss $202M, operating cash flow $136M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Diversified Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Diversified Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($18.77 a share) would return about 30% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $33.57 a share (132% against today's $14.44).
What would a takeover of Diversified Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Diversified Energy would cost about $19.13 a share, $1.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.