Filing Flows › Dollar Tree (DLTR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Dollar Tree (DLTR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($179.32 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $119.93 a share (−13% against today's $137.94). Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.59× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $179.32 | today's $137.94 plus 30% |
| × shares | 190.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $34.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.4B | |
| − Cash | $1.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $35.6B | 12.5× EBITDA of $2.8B |
| Fees | $712M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $15.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $20.6B | 57% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $21.7B | $3.1B | $1.2B | $198M | $15.5B |
| Year 2 | $23.1B | $3.3B | $1.2B | $309M | $15.2B |
| Year 3 | $24.4B | $3.5B | $1.2B | $420M | $14.7B |
| Year 4 | $25.4B | $3.6B | $1.1B | $528M | $14.2B |
| Year 5 | $26.2B | $3.7B | $1.1B | $630M | $13.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $36.2B | |
| − Debt left | $13.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $22.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $20.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $137.94; the IRR reaches 20% at $119.93 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $151.73 | 8.1% |
| 20% | $165.53 | 4.7% |
| 30% | $179.32 | 1.8% |
| 40% | $193.12 | −0.6% |
| 50% | $206.91 | −2.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $20.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.8B | 14.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $648M | |
| Capital spending | $1.1B | |
| Debt | $2.4B | |
| Cash | $1.1B | |
| Share price | $137.94 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dollar Tree would cost about $182.77 a share, $34.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $165.53 | $31.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $182.77 | $34.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $209.39 | $40.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.59× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Dollar Tree's latest quarter
Dollar Tree, Q2 FY27: revenue $4.9B (+7% year over year), operating margin 14.1%, net earnings $514M, operating cash flow $922M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Dollar Tree being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Dollar Tree?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($179.32 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $119.93 a share (−13% against today's $137.94).
What would a takeover of Dollar Tree cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dollar Tree would cost about $182.77 a share, $34.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.